Real-estate / infrastructure-finance analyst valuing datacenter REIT vs hyperscale-builder economics.

Audience Profile

• Age / Experience: 5-15 years; mid-to-senior
• Current role: REIT analyst / Infrastructure-finance / Corp dev (investment bank / private equity / sovereign fund)
• Top pain points: AI-driven NOI growth attribution vs broader cloud; Pre-lease backlog vs delivered MW conversion timeline; Pre-power-secured land value methodology
• Top decision blockers: Forward power-cost assumptions on PPA modelling; Capex commitments not granular by region in disclosures (only two declared for this segment)

What This Segment Needs

• Information: Reconciliation of reported "% data center revenue growth" to total revenue $/YoY; region-level capex split; PPA price/term and interconnection-queue position; pre-lease backlog dated to energization.
• Tools: A REIT-vs-builder comp model normalizing Core FFO/AFFO against contracted annualized GAAP backlog ($) and power-secured (not just developable) MW.
• Services: Diligence on hyperscaler tenant concentration and named-counterparty credit behind backlog.

Top 5 Companies for You (Fit Score)

| Rank | Company | Score | Why | |------|---------|-------|-----| | 1 | Iron Mountain | 75/100 | '25% DC revenue growth' Q1'25 but total only $1.59B (+8%); '17 MW' leased on ~125 MW 2024 leasing; 5 buildout hires Feb–Apr'26. Real momentum off a small base; multi-GW developable figure unbacked by named tenants. | | 2 | Digital Realty | 74/100 | Q3'25 ~$1.5B with record bookings, raised FY25 Core FFO; >$800M annualized GAAP backlog from AI/hyperscale; sustained Feb–May'26 engineering hiring. Investment-grade DLR; tenant-concentration + rate risk on leveraged pipeline. | | 3 | Equinix | 73/100 | FY25 ~$9.3B (~6-7% YoY), '80+ consecutive quarters', raised guidance, xScale '>$8B'/40+ facilities. Durable not accelerating; 2025-06-25 capex ramp runs ahead of realized top-line — AI thesis still a forward bet. | | 4 | Compass Datacenters | 64/100 | Full land-to-commissioning pipeline hired in 95 days (2026-02-20→05-06); Brookfield + Ontario Teachers backing. business_signals_180d empty — trajectory unquantified; single-tenant 50–200 MW build-to-suit concentrates counterparty risk. | | 5 | Aligned Data Centers | 62/100 | 5 build-out roles in 70 days (2026-02-19→04-30); Macquarie control since 2018, green debt. No 2026 financials; business_signals_180d empty; loss/delay of one multi-MW pre-lease can strand a campus. |

Deal-Breakers (Your Hard Preferences)

No hard preferences declared for this segment.

How to Evaluate Any Company in this Niche (Checklist)

• [ ] Check growth signals: reconcile any "X% data center revenue growth" against total revenue $ and blended YoY %; flag growth quoted off a sub-$2B base.
• [ ] Check comp data: pull Core FFO/AFFO per share and contracted annualized GAAP backlog ($) from the latest 10-Q; divide backlog by disclosed leasing MW.
• [ ] Check learning signals: count direct-to-chip/liquid-cooling + MV switchgear + grid-interconnection reqs posted in trailing 180d as a buildout-intensity proxy.
• [ ] Check stability signals: watch REIT leverage/rate sensitivity and any legacy segment in "secular decline" cross-subsidizing datacenter capex.
• [ ] Check power/land signals: verify named PPA/interconnection agreements (MW + execution date) behind every "multi-GW developable" claim.
• [ ] Check culture signals: ask whether engineering/delivery reqs outnumber sales/marketing and whether power sits at leadership (e.g., Director, Energy & Grid Strategy).

Reverse-Hype Watch

• Iron Mountain: '25% growth' is off a small base — total revenue only +8%; company explicitly underweight vs DLR/EQIX.
• Iron Mountain: 'well over 1 GW developable' vs '~17 MW' Q1'25 actual; no named hyperscaler customers disclosed.
• Equinix: capex/self-build ramp (Analyst Day 2025-06-25) runs ahead of realized ~6-7% YoY revenue — no delivered MW conversion yet.
• Compass / Aligned: "multiple campuses in construction" / "multi-hundred-MW power" rest on talent reqs alone; business_signals_180d is [] — no funding, awards, or pre-lease MW.

Under-reported for this segment: the conversion timeline from pre-lease backlog to energized, revenue-generating MW — and the price/term of the PPA securing that power — is the single value driver least disclosed publicly. Hiring patterns and "developable GW" headlines proxy ambition, not contracted economics; region-level capex granularity and named-tenant credit behind backlog are routinely absent — exactly the inputs your PPA and NOI-attribution models depend on.